方恩格快評》賀錦麗演講 臺灣要注意
美國副總統賀錦麗（Kamala Harris）。(圖/美聯社)
8月24日，美國副總統賀錦麗在新加坡就拜登政府在東南亞、印太地區和全球的政策發表公開演講。對於賀錦麗副總統來說，尷尬的是，她演講的第一部分專門討論了阿富汗正在發生的事件，這些事件現在既是拜登政府的國內政治危機，而且如果各國懷疑美國的安全承諾，就有可能成爲外交政策危機。
賀錦麗感謝包括新加坡在內的美國夥伴最近在阿富汗問題上提供的援助。這說明，即使是新加坡這樣的小國，也能提供這樣的援助。臺灣也應該考慮這樣做。例如，筆者之前提出，在阿富汗難民移居美國之前，臺灣可以提出臨時收容阿富汗難民。
除阿富汗外，賀錦麗的講話與拜登政府的聲明一致，包括拜登政府對中國在南海的行動、對東南亞和自由開放的印度太平洋地區的重視以及擴大在亞洲的貿易。在東南亞開展業務的美國公司會因爲賀錦麗提到該地區的經濟願景而鬆了一口氣，即使她沒有提供細節。然而，賀錦麗在談論到例如氣候變化和新冠疫情大流行的反應等議題時，顯然更感興趣
賀錦麗強調了與其他國家合作的重要性，例如「四方會談」，跟進川普政府爲鼓舞四國所做的努力，並強調與多邊組織的合作，例如東盟和亞太經合組織，不同於川普政府對多邊組織的懷疑態度。賀錦麗宣佈，美國希望在2023年成爲APEC的東道國。
不管賀錦麗在演講中怎麼說，新加坡和總理李顯龍已經是大贏家。美國副總統不僅訪問新加坡並發表公開演講，而且在賀錦麗訪問的第一天，美國和新加坡就氣候變化、新冠肺炎、網路安全和供應鏈簽署了多項協議。在美國國防部長奧斯汀訪問新加坡後不到一個月，副總統賀錦麗訪問新加坡，奧斯丁當時發表公開演講。 2018年新加坡舉辦了川普總統與朝鮮領導人金正恩的首次會晤，2015年新加坡舉辦了「馬習會」。新加坡顯然是美國重要的安全和貿易伙伴，新加坡政府的觀點在美國受到關注，例如李顯龍最近在阿斯彭安全論壇上說，對中國來說「臺獨絕對是醒目的紅燈」。
臺灣政府應密切關注賀錦麗的講話。阿富汗和中東將繼續成爲美國外交政策和軍事資源的焦點。賀錦麗呼籲在亞洲加強多邊主義，但這可能會導致臺灣被排除在許多活動之外，因爲除APEC和亞洲開發銀行外，中國阻止臺灣參與大多數其他以亞洲爲重點的多邊組織和協議。即使美國在2023年主辦APEC領導人峰會，蔡總統也可能被排除在外。
也許對臺灣來說最重要的是，儘管賀錦麗批評了中國，但賀錦麗並沒有呼籲東南亞國家與臺灣進行更多接觸。儘管蔡政府大力推動「新南向政策」，但東南亞國家似乎仍繼續限制與臺灣在貿易和文化事務上的接觸。
Kamala Harris Singapore Speech – What Taiwan Should Pay Attention To
By Ross Darrell Feingold
Former Asia Chairman Republicans Abroad
On August 24th in Singapore United States Vice President Kamala Harris delivered a public speech on the Biden Administration’s policies in Southeast Asia the Indo Pacific and globally. Unfortunately for Vice President Harris the first portion of her speech was devoted to the ongoing events in Afghanistan which are now both a domestic political crisis for the Biden Administration and risks becoming a foreign policy crisis if countries suspect the security commitments of the United States.
Harris thanked United States’ partners including Singapore for recent assistance related to Afghanistan. This shows that even small countries such as Singapore can provide such assistance which is something Taiwan should consider doing. For example this author previously proposed that Taiwan can offer to temporarily host Afghan refugees prior to the refugees relocation to the United States.
Other than Afghanistan Vice President Harris’ speech was consistent with statements by other Biden Administration’s about China’s actions in the South China Sea the importance that the Biden Administration puts on Southeast Asia and a free and open Indo Pacific as well as expanding trade between Asia and the United States. United States’ companies that do business in Southeast Asia will be relieved that Harris referred to an economic vision for the region even if she did not provide details. However Vice President Harris was more animated when discussing issues of greater personal interest to her such as climate change and the response to the COVID 19 pandemic.
Vice President Harris emphasized the importance of working together with other countries such as the “Quad” group which follows up on the efforts of the Trump Administration to invigorate the Quad and she emphasized working with multilateral organizations such as Asean and APEC which differs from the Trump Administration’s skepticism of multilateral organizations. Vice President Harris announced that the United States wants to serve as the APEC host country in 2023.
Regardless of what Vice President Harris said in her speech Singapore and Prime Minister Lee Hsien-loong are already a big winner. Not only did the United States vice president visit Singapore and deliver a public speech but on the first day of Harris’ visit the United States and Singapore signed several agreements on climate change COVID-19 cybersecurity and supply chain resiliency. Vice President Harris’ visit to Singapore comes less than one month after United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Singapore during which he also delivered a public speech. In 2018 Singapore hosted the first meeting between President Trump and North Korea leader Kim Jong-un and in 2015 Singapore hosted the Ma Ying-jeou – Xi Jinping summit. Singapore is clearly a crucial security and trade partner for the United States and the Singapore government’s views receive attention in the United States such as when Prime Minister Lee recently told the Aspen Security Forum that “Taiwan independence is an absolute bright red light” for China.
The Taiwan government should pay careful attention to Harris’ speech. Afghanistan and the middle east will continue to remain a focus for United States foreign policy and military resources. Harris called for more multilateralism in Asia but this will likely result in Taiwan’s exclusion from many activities given that other than APEC and the Asian Development Bank China prevents Taiwan’s participation in most other Asia focused multilateral organizations and agreements. Even if the United States hosts the APEC leaders summit in 2023 President Tsai might be excluded from attending.
Perhaps most importantly for Taiwan although Harris criticized China Harris did not call on Southeast Asian countries to engage more with Taiwan. It appears that countries in Southeast Asia will continue to limit their engagement with Taiwan to trade and cultural matters notwithstanding the Tsai Administration’s “Southbound Policy”.
※以上言論不代表旺中媒體集團立場※