方恩格專欄》賴政府無須諂媚川普
賴總統和臺灣政府應該注意，不要過度表達對川普總統的諂媚。（路透社）
去年11月美國大選後，筆者曾發表〈與川普政府打交道應避免的事〉評論。然而，最近的事態發展，促使筆者向臺灣政府主管機關提供進一步的建議，包括賴清德總統、國家安全委員會、外交部或其他政府機構。
一、拒絕「總統提用權」免費軍事裝備：2024年12月20日，美國總統拜登再次宣佈將利用總統提用權向臺灣「裁減高達5.713億美元的國防物品和物資」，賴總統應指示國防部長顧立雄拒絕美國的免費國防援助。
筆者認爲，臺灣不應僅僅爲了滿足川普政府而急於購買武器，同時，臺灣也不需要接受美國免費贈送的軍事裝備。接受免費禮物是向川普政府傳達了一個可怕的訊息：臺灣無力支付自己的國防費用，需要美國的禮物。爲了表明其認真考慮增加國防開支，臺灣只有一個選擇。這是爲了武器需求支付現金，而不是給美國或川普總統留下臺灣買不起武器的印象。
二、川普不在乎臺灣誰出席就職典禮：立法院長韓國瑜將率跨黨派代表團出席川普就職典禮。川普在乎嗎？不，川普沒有。立法院長率團出席就職當然不是突破。王金平曾於2009、2013年率團出席歐巴馬總統就職典禮，游錫堃曾於2017年率團出席就職典禮。儘管聽起來令人不快，但立法院長並不是川普認識或關心的人。
三、川普可能會說習近平的好話：川普過去對習近平的評論從友好到憤怒不等。川普在第一任總統期間甚至一度稱習近平爲敵人。不過，川普最近強調他和習近平可以相處，他們的團隊已經在溝通。事實上，川普曾邀請習近平參加就職典禮，不過目前看來習近平將拒絕出席。也許川普對習近平說好話是爲了與中國就貿易問題達成協議的談判策略，也或許還有其他動機。
四、爲多邊組織政策變革做好準備：臺灣迫切希望成爲國際組織和國際協議的成員，例如世界衛生組織、國際刑警組織、國際民用航空組織和聯合國氣候變遷綱要公約等。然而，正如川普第一任總統所做的那樣，美國很可能再次退出某些國際組織和國際協議。最近有報導稱，對世界衛生組織來說，川普甚至可能在1月20日上任第一天退出；在接下來的幾個月，川普可能會讓美國退出其他國際組織或協議。
川普政府可能創建替代的國際組織，其中沒有中國參與，對臺灣來說，這可能是加入的機會。無論如何，臺灣必須重新評估，是否需要無止盡的努力參與世界衛生組織，或是川普領導下美國可能退羣的其他國際組織。
五、無需向川普政府磕頭：一些外國領導人在總統交接時期爭先恐後地與川普會面或交談。也許這些領導人擔心川普不知道他們是誰，或可能忽視他們的國家，因此迫切需要與川普交朋友。事實上，川普最近對媒體表示，「每個人都想成爲我的朋友」，儘管媒體也將其中一些外國領導人的行爲形容爲「排隊親吻川普的戒指」。
所幸，賴清德無法親自與川普會面，除非美國對其「一箇中國」政策做出重大改變。就目前而言，川普在總統交接期間似乎不會像當初與蔡英文通話那樣與賴總統通電話。
不過，賴總統和臺灣政府應該注意，不要過度表達對川普總統的諂媚。例如，祝賀川普就職之類的社羣媒體訊息應該簡短而不是拍馬屁。臺灣喜歡談論與志同道合的民主國家合作，這可以繼續強調，即使川普不像拜登那樣經常談論這一點。
最重要的是，在與川普和美國新政府打交道時，臺灣應該繼續優先考慮自己的利益，就像川普先考慮美國自身的利益一樣。
（作者爲美國共和黨前亞太區主席）
The Lai Administration and the Trump Administration: Things to Think About
By Ross Darrell Feingold
@RossFeingold
Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad
Last November after the United States presidential election, this author wrote a commentary titled “Taiwan Should Not Overreact to Trump Victory”. However, recent developments prompt this author to provide further advice to the key government stakeholders in Taiwan, including President Lai Ching-te, the National Security Council, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or other agencies of the government.
1. Decline the “Presidential Drawdown Authority” Free Military Equipment: One 20 December 2024, outgoing United States President Joe Biden once again announced that he would use his Presidential Drawdown Authority to provide Taiwan a “drawdown of up to US$571,300,000 in defense articles and services of the Department of Defense, and military education and training”. President Lai should instruct his Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo to decline the free defense aid from the United States.
This author’s view is that Taiwan should not, simply to satisfy the Trump Administration, rush into weapons purchases.
However, at the same time, Taiwan does not need to accept free gifts of military equipment from the United States. Accepting the free gifts sends a terrible message to the new Trump Administration. That message is, Taiwan cannot afford to pay for its own defense and needs gifts from the United States.
In order to demonstrate that it is serious about spending more on its defense, there’s only one option for Taiwan. That’s to pay cash for its weapons needs, and not give the United States or President Trump the impression that Taiwan cannot afford to buy weapons.
2. President Trump Doesn’t Care Who from Taiwan Attends the Inauguration: Legislative Yuan Speaker Daniel Han Kuo-yu will lead a cross-party delegation to attend Trump’s inauguration. Does Trump care? No, Trump does not.
It is certainly not a breakthrough (突破) for the Legislative Yuan speaker to lead a delegation to the United States president’s inauguration. Then Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang Jin-pyng led the delegation to President Barack Obama’s inauguration in 2009 and 2013, and then Legislative Yuan Speaker You Si-kun led the delegation in 2017. Due to the pandemic in January 2021, no delegation from Taiwan attended Biden’s inauguration, and instead then Representative to the United States Hsiao Bi-khim attended the inauguration on behalf of Taiwan.
As unpleasant as it may sound, the Speaker of Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan is not a person that Trump knows or cares about.
3. President Trump Might Say Nice Things about Xi Jinping: President Trump’s comments about China’s Xi Jinping in the past have ranged from friendly to angry. During his first term as President, Trump even once called Xi Jinping an enemy. However, recently Trump emphasized that he and Xi can get along and that their aides are already in communication.
In fact, Trump invited Xi Jinping to attend Trump’s inauguration, though as of now it appears that Xi Jinping will decline to attend.
Perhaps Trump says nice things about Xi Jinping as a negotiating tactic in order to reach an agreement with China on trade issues. Perhaps Trump has other motivations for saying nice things about Xi Jinping.
4. Be Prepared for a Multilateral Organizations Policy Change: Taiwan desperately wants to be a member of international organizations and international agreements. Examples include the World Health Organization, Interpol, the International Civil Aviation Organization, and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, among many others.
However, just as Trump did in his first term as President, it is likely that the United States will once again leave certain international organizations and international agreements. Recent media reports say that for the World Health Organization, Trump might even withdraw the United Staes on January 20th, his first day in office. In the following months, Trump might withdraw the United States from additional international organizations or agreements.
For Taiwan this might be an opportunity to join alternative international organizations (without China’s participation) that the Trump Administration might create.
Regardless, Taiwan might need to reassess its never-ending efforts to participate in the World Health Organization or any other organizations and agreements that the United States leaves under President Trump.
5. No Need to Kowtow to the Trump Administration: Some foreign leaders have rushed to meet or speak to Trump during the transition period. Perhaps these leaders worry that Trump will not know who they are, or might ignore their countries, and thus there is an urgency to make friends with Trump. In fact, Trump recently said to the media that “everybody wants to be my friend”, though media also describe the behavior of some of these foreign leaders as “lining up to kiss Trump’s ring”.
Fortunately for President Lai, he cannot meet President Trump in person unless the United States makes a dramatic change to its One China Policy, and, as of now, it appears that Trump will not have a phone call with President Lai like Trump had with President Tsai Ing-wen during the presidential transition period (總統交接期間).
However, President Lai and the Taiwan government should be careful not to overdo expressions of love towards President Trump. For example, social media messages such as congratulating Trump on his inauguration should be brief and not obsequious. Taiwan likes to talk about like minded democratic countries working together and can continue to do so even if president Trump doesn’t talk about this as much as President Joe Biden did.
Most important, in dealing with President Trump and the new United States government, Taiwan should continue to prioritize its own interests, just as President Trump will prioritize the United States’ own interests.