方恩格專欄》如果賴清德與川普會面

若賴清德與川普會面，情況又會是如何？（合成圖／美聯社、中時資料照）

2月28日，美國總統川普與烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基在白宮橢圓辦公室的會晤，已成爲美國外交史上的重要時刻。同時，這次會談雖不歡而散，但若最終能開啓和平之路，這也可能是俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭3年來最重大的事件之一。

作爲一名專門研究臺美外交關係的分析師，「川澤會」讓我不禁思考，若臺灣總統賴清德與川普會面，情況又會是如何？

當然，基於美國的「一中政策」，此類會面幾乎不可能發生。事實上，與2016年12月時不同，美國總統當選人川普曾與時任臺灣總統的蔡英文通話；反之，2024年12月，當川普再次當選總統時，他並未與賴清德通話，這肯定讓賴清德及其外交團隊大失所望。包括副總統蕭美琴、外交部長林佳龍及國安會秘書長吳釗燮在內的團隊，想必曾嘗試促成這場通話，但顯然沒有成功。

「賴川會」，將相談甚歡還是針鋒相對？

首先，賴清德的英語能力是否能與澤倫斯基相比？他能像澤倫斯基一樣，全程用英語與川普交流嗎？

平心而論，賴清德的英語不錯。根據總統府官網最近發佈的一段影片，3月4日在「全球合作暨訓練架構全社會韌性建立、整備與應變研習營」開幕典禮上，賴清德以英語發表演說。但另一方面，在總統府接見外賓時，他通常還是使用中文，例如3月4日，他接待美國傳統基金會智庫代表團時，影片顯示他仍以中文發言。

然而，「川澤會」中，有個很好體現澤倫斯基英語能力的時刻。當川普對澤倫斯基說「You don't have the cards right now.」（你現在手上沒有籌碼。）時，澤倫斯基立刻迴應「We're not playing cards.」（我們又不是在打牌。）這展現出澤倫斯基對英語的高度掌握，以及應對能力的迅速。

賴清德能用英文發表演說，但他是否有像澤倫斯基那樣的即時反應能力，仍值得觀察。

再者，有些美國人批評澤倫斯基，在與川普會談時未着西裝，而是穿着他一貫的「戰時總統裝」。事實上，自從戰爭爆發以來，澤倫斯基在所有正式場合，幾乎都維持這樣的穿着，包括在基輔與外國領袖會面，或出訪其他國家時。

這點對賴清德來說應該不是問題，因爲他在正式場合大多穿西裝、打領帶。不過，如果賴清德偶爾能「輕裝上陣」，以較輕鬆的服裝接見外賓，或許也會是一個有趣的改變。

第三，如果賴清德與川普會談，會否簽署類似「美烏稀土礦產協議」的合作文件？極大可能，賴清德會在川普的壓力下選擇讓步。近來川普多次公開指責臺灣「偷走了美國的半導體產業」。因此，如何應對川普，已成爲民進黨中常會（2月5日）與國安會（2月14日）的討論議題。臺灣政府應對川普的策略相當明顯：增加對美採購天然氣、購買更多美國武器、擴大進口美國農產品，並鼓勵臺灣企業對美投資。

其中，要求臺灣中油等國營企業購買美國天然氣，則相對容易推動；而購買美國軍武，則需要國民黨與民衆黨立委支持預算案。政府雖無法強制要求民間企業增加對美採購，例如：食品業進口更多美國農產品，但透過「Team Taiwan」的呼籲，仍可能影響企業決策。此外，臺積電已在3月3日宣佈將大幅增加在美投資，除商業考量外，也可能帶有政治壓力。隨着臺積電供應鏈跟進赴美投資，臺灣企業對美投資將進一步成長。然而，這是否足以讓川普放棄對臺灣產品加徵關稅，仍有待觀察。

第四，賴清德「感恩的心」夠讓總統川普和副總統範斯滿意嗎？「川澤會」之所以迅速演變成爭吵，部分原因是副總統範斯認爲澤倫斯基對美國的軍事援助不甚感激。對臺美關係來說，臺灣政府時常強調臺美關係「堅若磐石」，也經常公開感謝美國的支持。但川普或範斯對這些表態是否知情，又是另一回事。

最後，如果川普與賴清德的會談破裂，川普是否可能像對烏克蘭那樣，決定暫停對臺軍援？前任總統拜登透過「總統撥款權」，直接提供臺灣免費的軍備援助。川普上臺後，他完全可以選擇不再這麼做（而筆者認爲這是正確決定，畢竟臺灣經濟狀況良好，有能力自付國防開支）。

至於對美軍購，川普是否會因對賴清德或對臺灣的貿易順差不滿，而拖延軍售審批？若發生這種情況，賴清德的迴應又將爲何？

幸運的是，臺美關係總體上比美烏關係來得穩定。然而，即使臺積電已增加對美投資，川普仍可能不滿臺美間的貿易順差，並要求臺灣政府與人民，在國防上更加自立自強。

此外，近期事件也顯示出，臺灣政府不能僅依賴重複疾呼「今日烏克蘭、明日臺灣」或「當極權擴張，則民主團結」這類口號。對川普而言，他要的不是口號，而是臺灣採取實際行動迴應他。

（作者爲美國共和黨前亞太區主席，翻譯：鍾文妤）

What If It Was Taiwan’s President Lai and Not Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy Meeting President Trump in the Oval Office?

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

X: @RossFeingold

The meeting on February 28th in the White House Oval Office between United States President Donald Trump and Ukraine President Volodmyr Zelensky is already one of the memorable moments in the history of United States diplomacy. At the same time, it might also be one of the most significant moments in the three years since Russia invaded Ukraine, if, despite the meeting ending in anger, it turns out to the beginning of an actual peace process.

As an analyst of Taiwan’s foreign policy and relations with the United States, the way the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting ended prompted me to wonder how a meeting between Taiwan’s President William Lai and President Trump would have gone.

Of course, due to the United States’ “One China Policy”, no such meeting is likely. In fact, unlike in December 2016 when then President-elect Trump had a phone call with then-President Tsai Ing-wen, in December 2024 President-elect Trump did not have a phone call with President Lai, which must have come as a huge disappointment to President Lai and his foreign policy team including Vice President Bikhim Hsiao, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung, and National Security Council Secretary General Joseph Wu. There’s no doubt that they tried to arrange such a call but were unsuccessful.

Would a Lai-Trump meeting have ended happily or in angry disagreement?

First, is President Lai’s English ability as good as Zelenskyy’s? Would Lai be able to conduct a meeting with Trump entirely in English as Zelenskyy can?

To be fair to President Lai, he speaks English reasonably well. A video recently posted on the Presidential Office website from the opening ceremony of the Global Cooperation and Training Framework Workshop on Whole-of-Society Resilience Building, Preparation, and Response on March 4th shows Lai delivering his speech in English. On the other hand, when meeting foreign dignitaries at the Presidential Office, President Lai usually speaks in Mandarin, as evidenced by another video on the Presidential Office website, of President Lai meeting a delegation from the Heritage Foundation “think tank”, also on March 4th.

However, one of the most revealing English languages moments for Zelenskyy during the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting was when Trump said to Zelenskyy “You don't have the cards right now”, and Zelenskyy immediately replied “We’re not playing cards”. This showed that Zelenskyy has a very advanced English language skill, as he understood the reference Trump made to playing cards.

President Lai can deliver a speech in English, but does he have the rapid response ability in English that Zelenskyy has?

Second, some in the United States have criticized Zelenskyy for not wearing a suit to the meeting with Trump. In fact, Zelenskyy has worn his “presidential uniform” throughout the war, and has worn it to many meetings with foreign dignitaries both in Kyiv as well as when he visits other countries. This should not be an issue for President Lai, as he generally wears a suit and tie when meeting foreign dignitaries. Though, it would be interesting to see President Lai “lighten up a bit” and wear something less formal when meeting foreign dignitaries!

Third, would President Lai have signed an agreement with the United States similar to the proposed rare earth and minerals agreement between the United States and Ukraine? Most likely, President Lai would probably give in to Trump’s pressure. After Trump recently said several times that Taiwan stole the United States’ semiconductor industry, how to deal with Trump was discussed at the Democratic Progressive Party Central Executive Committee meeting on February 5th, and at the National Security Council meeting that President Lai convened on February 14th. Taiwan’s plan for dealing with Trump is obvious: buy more natural gas from the United States, buy more weapons from the United States, buy more agricultural products from the United States, and encourage Taiwan companies to invest more in the United States.

It’s very easy for President Lai to instruct state owned companies like CPC Corporation, Taiwan to buy more natural gas. Buying more weapons from the United States will require the cooperation of Chinese Nationalist Party and Taiwan People’s Party legislators to agree to the proposed budget. It’s more difficult to order private sector companies such as those in the food industry to purchase more agricultural products from the United States, though pressure from the government might prompt the food industry to do their part for “Team Taiwan”. When it comes to more investment in the United States by Taiwan’s technology companies, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) announcement on March 3rd that it will significantly increase its investment in the United States was probably prompted by a combination of political pressure and business necessity. TSMC’s supply chain will follow TSMC to the United States, which will further increase Taiwan companies’ investment in the United States. However, whether this is enough to stop Trump from increasing tariffs on Made in Taiwan products remains to be seen.

Fourth, would President Lai have thanked the United States sufficiently to satisfy President Trump and Vice President JD Vance? One of the reasons why the Trump – Zelenskyy meeting quickly became an argument was that Vance felt that Zelenskyy failed to show sufficient gratitude for the military aid and other assistance that the United States has provided Ukraine over the past three years. For the Taiwan - United States relationship, the Taiwan government often describes relations as “rock solid”, and the Taiwan government often issues statements to thank the United States for the support the United States publicly shows for Taiwan. Whether Trump or Vance are aware that Taiwan often thanks the United States is unknown.

Finally, if a Trump-Lai meeting went poorly, what would President Lai do if Trump cut off military aid to Taiwan similar to Trump’s decision to pause military aid to Ukraine? President Joe Biden used “Presidential Drawdown Authority” to provide military equipment to Taiwan for free. Trump can easily refuse to do that again (which this author thinks would be the correct decision, as Taiwan is a wealthy country that can afford to pay for its national defense needs). What about approval for Taiwan’s purchase of weapons from United States manufacturers? Would Trump delay approvals if he is mad at President Lai or mad at Taiwan’s large trade surplus with the United States? And if so, what would President Lai do in response?

Fortunately for Taiwan, the relationship with the United States is generally smooth and not as tense as Ukraine’s relationship with the United States is. However, despite TSMC’s additional investment in the United States, Trump will remain unhappy about Taiwan’s large trade surplus with the United States, and he will expect the Taiwan government and people to do more for Taiwan’s national defense.

One more important lesson from recent events is that the Taiwan government cannot simply rely on repeatedly saying things such as “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow” or “the more totalitarianism gathers, the more democratic countries should unite”. Trump will expect Taiwan to take action to address his concerns, and such slogans will be meaningless.