盛鬆成：社融顯示中國三季度GDP可能超預期（MNI訪談）

中歐國際工商學院教授、中國人民銀行調查統計司原司長盛鬆成在接受美國國際市場新聞社採訪時表示，中國第三季度GDP增長可能會超出預期。央行社會融資規模的數據顯示，中國經濟在8月份觸底。

國家統計局週三將公佈三季度經濟數據。市場預計，三季度GDP有望同比增長爲4.5%。盛鬆成指出，今年8月末，社融存量同比增長9%，增速比上月提高0.1個百分點，在主要金融指標中率先觸底回升，結束了連續數月的放緩。

“目前社融增速在一定程度上表明經濟企穩回暖，三季度經濟表現可能超預期。” 盛鬆成指出，“9月末，社融存量同比增速繼續保持在9%。由於今年GDP增速預期目標爲5%左右，物價較低，三季度社融平均增速9%已經不低。”中國官方多次指出要”保持社融增速同名義GDP增速基本匹配"。

盛鬆成表示，我國消費逐步恢復、投資不斷增加，但經濟回升仍需要一定時間，逆週期調控力度不宜減弱。“貨幣政策還需要一定程度的寬鬆，未來降準降息的空間仍然存在，但降準優於降息。降准將增加商業銀行的流動性，來配合財政發債，同時支持實體經濟發展。” 他建議。

社會融資規模

作爲中國獨創的金融指標，社會融資規模內涵非常豐富，不僅包括信貸，還包括表外融資、直接融資等。 市場近期對社融討論較多，主要是關於在貨幣政策持續寬鬆，流動性合理充裕，信貸保持高位的背景下，社融增速卻表現一般。

對此，盛鬆成解釋說，社融增速主要取決於貨幣政策，但後者不是唯一的決定因素，和財政政策以及金融市場的運行也有很大關係。

他指出，9月社融增長也能反映我國房地產市場的逐步企穩。房地產政策放鬆會增加購房者貸款，如9月居民部門中長期貸款同比多增2014億元；也會適度提高房企融資，如銀行貸款、債券融資等。這些都包括在社融中，所以社融也會增長，盛鬆成表示。

根據中國人民銀行數據，初步測算，中國宏觀槓桿率第二季度躍升至290%。盛鬆成表示，在經濟復甦回暖時期，宏觀槓桿率有所提升是正常現象，而隨着經濟增長，宏觀槓桿率會趨穩甚至下降，所以目前我國宏觀槓桿率有所提升是階段性的而不是趨勢性的。

目前居民消費在逐漸恢復，而沒有趨勢性下滑。國家已經並將繼續採取一系列措施，促進消費增長，最根本的是發展經濟、增加就業、提高收入，他強調。

英文版

MNI INTERVIEW: China GDP To Beat Expectations- Ex PBOC's Sheng

—Aggregate financing to the real economy data indicates Chinese growth touched bottom in August, according to a former high-ranking official.

China’s third quarter gross domestic product growth is likely to beat expectations after central bank data on aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE) signaled that the economy's expansion hit bottom in August, a former high-ranking People’s Bank of China official told MNI.

Investors expect Wednesday’s release to show that GDP growth printed at 4.5% year-on-year in Q3, down from Q2’s 6.3%, but Sheng Songcheng, former head of the PBOC’s statistics department, noted that AFRE rose by 9%y/y in August, up 0.1 percentage point from July and ending five consecutive months of slowdown since April.

“Outstanding AFRE grew by 9% y/y as of the end of September, which is not low considering the GDP target is around 5% and inflation remains tepid,” Sheng said, referring to the official target of “maintaining AFRE growth in line with the expansion rate of nominal GDP.”

However, Sheng, now a professor at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai, said the PBOC should retain its easing bias as recovering consumption and rising investment would take time to feed into an economic rebound. There is still space for cuts in interest rates and reserve requirement ratios, he said.

“RRR reduction would be a better option since it can add liquidity for commercial banks and support government bond issuance,” he said, noting the significant role of government borrowing in growth in AFRE.

AGGREGATE FINANCING

An indicator unique to China, the 13-year-old AFRE gauges bank loans as well as off-balance-sheet funding and equity financing. Local investors have noted the measure’s relative weakness in recent months, despite PBOC easing, but Sheng said that fiscal and financial market activities affect the AFRE too.

Medium- and long-term loans to households added CNY201.4 billion to September’s AFRE versus the same period last year, indicating recent moves to relax controls on house buying have worked, Sheng said. Adjustments to housing policy will also boost developers, increasing their bank loans and bond sales, he said.

“The property-related items in AFRE indicate the housing market is stabilising,” Sheng said.

As to China’s rising debt/GDP ratio, which jumped to 290% in Q2 according to the PBOC, Sheng said this move higher would be temporary and the ratio will steady with economic recovery. Authorities will continue to drive for economic expansion, increases in employment and to improve household income to bolster consumption, he said.

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